Last week, the Department of Ecology released the results of the latest CO2 auction, reporting a 24% jump in the price since the last auction in December. In the last six months, the price of CO2 allowances has increased 67%.

The cost of Washington’s CO2 tax is now 39.5 cents per gallon of gas and 48.3 cents per gallon of diesel.

When the CO2 tax took effect in January of 2023, average gas prices in Washington and Oregon were virtually identical. Today Washington’s average gas price is about 37 cents per gallon more than Oregon. There are many other policies and factors that influence the difference between the two states, but the fact that the gap between the two states is similar to the implied cost of Washington's CO2 tax is not a coincidence.

It is also notable that that the price of $50 per metric ton of CO2 is above the Department of Ecology’s projected price in their “High Scenario” of $49.45 released in December. Although prices aren’t at the level of 2023, they are still much higher than projected.

The auction results demonstrate again that despite the bluster from Ecology staff and some politicians, they can’t accurately predict future prices even a few months into the future. The notion that they can successfully manage a radical economic and energy transition decades into the future when they can’t successfully predict things just a few months ahead is obviously ludicrous.

As long as Washington’s climate policy is based on the myth that agency bureaucrats can guide Washington to a carbon-free future, the state will continue to waste huge amounts of money on failed projects, significantly increase energy prices, harm families, and continue to miss our (arbitrary) climate targets.

The latest auction results are just the latest evidence of that sad reality.