Key Findings

1. Washington state’s EV rebate program was intended to open the door to EV ownership for people of modest incomes 
2. Vehicle registration data show the program achieved just over half its promised goals 
3. The price to cut CO2 using the state’s EV rebate is the equivalent of paying $2,072.14 for a latte. 
4. Rebates increased new EV sales by an estimated 3,477, used sales by about 1,163 and electric trucks by about 187, for a total of 4,788, well below the Department of Commerce’s initial projection of up to 8,767 additional vehicles. 
5. CO2 reductions are much smaller than expected, reducing lifetime emissions by only 13,030 metric tons – equivalent to about 0.03% of Washington’s annual transportation-related emissions. 
6. The cost of the program to reduce emissions is astronomical, costing $3,453.57 to reduce one metric ton of CO2 – nearly 86 times as much as the state’s current CO2 price. 
7. For every $1 of subsidy, the people of Washington receive just over a penny’s worth of environmental benefit. 
8. During the three months when the rebates were in effect, the average household income of the zip codes where rebate-eligible EVs were sold was $118,816, only a slight decline from an average household income of $122,601 in the months before the rebates were available. 
9. A significant portion of the subsidies go to those who would have purchased an EV anyway. 
10. The EV mandate does nothing to reduce CO2 emissions on top of existing laws. 
11. Despite data indicating inefficiency and failure to achieve its goals, the 2025-27 budget proposed by Governor Inslee includes an additional $62.5 million to extend the program. 

Introduction

On Earth Day 2024, Governor Jay Inslee highlighted a new program to provide $45 million in state incentives for middle-income people to buy electric vehicles (EV) and plug-in hybrids (PHEV). The governor claimed, “With these new rebates, we’re significantly lowering the entry point, opening the door to EVs for people of modest incomes as we continue paving the way to a clean transportation future for all.” 

In a statement about the program, Department of Commerce staff wrote that “the program could lead to a reduction of up to 24,000 metric tons of Co2 emissions in the transportation sector, Washington’s greatest contributor of greenhouse gas emissions.” 

The rebates began on August 1, 2024 and were gone in less than three months, with the significant majority being used in August and September. We can now assess the impact of that program by examining vehicle registration data through the end of November.  

When the program was announced, we wrote that even if the program achieved its goals, the program was an extremely expensive way to cut CO2 emissions. 

Real-world data turned out to be significantly worse than initial projections. Vehicle registration data show the program achieved just over half its promised goals for the same price. Using the state’s EV rebate is the equivalent The price to cut CO2 of paying $2,072.14 for a latte. 

Despite that record, Governor Inslee’s 2025-27 budget proposal includes an additional $62.5 million to extend the program. 
The very poor environmental and purchase results make it clear that this program should not be continued. The program has a negligible impact on transportation-related CO2 emissions in the state and the cost for even that small amount is extremely high. Additionally, although sold as a program to “provide low-income Washingtonians access to electric vehicles,” the average income of purchasers was very similar to the high-income households already purchasing EVs.

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